(Reuters) The latest Greece Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 3.44% of Developed European regional oil demand by 2015, while making no appreciable contribution to supply. In Developed Europe, overall oil consumption in 2010 was an estimated 13.02mn barrels per day (b/d). It is set to recover to around 13.18mn b/d by 2015. Developed Europe regional oil production was 6.96mn b/d in 2001, and in 2010 averaged an estimated 4.40mn b/d. It is set to fall to just 3.53mn b/d by 2015.
Oil imports are growing steadily because supply is contracting and demand is rising, albeit slowly. In 2010, net crude imports were an estimated 8.62mn b/d. By 2015, they are expected to have reached 9.65mn b/d. Norway will remain the only major net exporter, with the UK a growing net importer. As regards natural gas, the Developed Europe region in 2010 consumed an estimated 416.5bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 457.1bcm targeted for 2015, representing 9.7% growth. Production of an estimated 255.7bcm in 2010 is set to fall to 254.0bcm in 2015, which implies net imports rising from the estimated 2010 level of 160.8bcm to some 203.1bcm by the end of the period. The Greek share of gas consumption in 2010 was an estimated 0.86%, while the country makes no meaningful contribution to production. By 2015, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 1.14%.
The 2010 full-year outturn was US$77.45/bbl for OPEC crude, which delivered an average for North Sea Brent of US$80.34/bbl and for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) of US$79.61/bbl. The BMI price target of US$77 was reached thanks to the early onset of particularly cold weather, which drove up demand for and the price of heating oil during the closing weeks of the year.
The author set the 2011 supply, demand and price forecasts in early January, targeting global oil demand growth of 1.53% and supply growth of 1.91%. With OECD inventories at the top of their five-year average range, BMI set a price forecast of US$80/bbl average for the OPEC basket in 2011. The unprecedented wave of popular uprisings in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) that followed the removal of Tunisian President Ben Ali on January 14 has obviously fundamentally altered the outlook, particularly since the unrest spread to Libya in mid-February.
Taking into account the risk premium that has been added to crude prices in response to actual and perceived threats to supply, BMI have now raised the benchmark OPEC basket price forecast from US$80 to US$90/bbl for 2011 and from US$85 to US$95/bbl for 2012. Based on the expectations for differentials, this gives a forecast for Brent at US$94/bbl in 2011 and US$99/bbl in 2012. BMI have kept the long-term price assumption of US$90/bbl (OPEC basket) in place for the time being while BMI wait to see what path events in the MENA region take. BMI have also retained the existing supply and demand forecasts until the scheduled quarterly revision at the start of April. Source; Research and Markets